Last week legendary hedge fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller announced his retirement from the investment world and stated that he was going to close down his Duquesne hedge fund. Druckenmiller was part of the team (along with George Soros) that broke the Bank of England in 1992 when they bet that the British Pound would fall against the Deutschmark and racked up profits on the day of around $1 billion. Druckenmiller cites his reason for retirement as his inability to make out-sized returns over the past 3 years due to very unfavourable market conditions.

Now, I don’t know what his issue was in 2008 as our spread betting system had a record-breaking year and there were a lot of very good trending markets across many different market sectors and this enabled our trading system to have its best year on record. 2009 and 2010 I can understand though as market conditions have been tough for everyone due to excessive volatility and global uncertainty.

The question is, what does this say about the future of hedge funds and the future of trend following? Whilst many believe that this is a bad sign if someone of the knowledge and experience of Druckenmiller has struggled to make money I actually take the opposite view. My belief is that Druckenmiller quitting is actually a great sign for future performance of hedge funds and especially trend following systems and funds and my reasoning is as follows:

All trading systems regardless of what they are based on will go through periods of good performance and periods of lesser performance. This is down to the nature of the markets and the fact that no strategy can be effective in all market conditions. Trend following systems will suffer during periods of excessive volatility and non-trending markets because they rely on good trends to make profits.

What we have seen in our own research and this is also quite well known amongst experienced traders and fund managers is that investors, especially amateur investors generally tend to bail out at the worst point, usually near the bottom of the equity curve. This is usually due to a period of poor performance exceeding their threshold for what they can handle.

At a higher level, the fund manager, also feeling under pressure from his investors and due to the need of better performance also seeks to change his strategy after a prolonged period of under-performance. Once the pain reaches a certain level amongst investors and fund managers, Druckenmiller quitting is evidence that we are at or very near that point we will then likely see mass withdrawals from hedge funds.  This will mean that moving forward not everyone is chasing the same moves and many will then use different or even opposing trading strategies. This will very likely free the markets up again and return them to a strong trending phase.

When someone of the calibre of Stanley Druckenmiller calls time on his trading due to how tough he is finding market conditions, that to me telegraphs the fact that we may be near the bottom of the equity curve and that it is in fact a great time not to quit, but to begin.

The markets essentially do one of two things, they either move directionally, i.e. trend or they move sideways, i.e. consolidate. In our trading research we have seen without doubt that following a prolonged period of one, a good period of the other follows. This is in fact quite logical and can be seen in many different markets. In 2008 for example, there were many out-sized trends in many market sectors and what has followed since has been a brutal period of consolidation.

It has always been my belief, based on my own research, that following a brutal consolidation phase, the likes of which have not previously been seen to the extent that are currently seeing, that an excellent period of trending markets will follow. These large trends could be either up or down. Trend following systems don’t care whether they are buying or selling, they can make money in up or down markets.

Now, whilst it would be foolish to say that Druckenmiller’s inadvertent timing is perfect as a contra-indicator, I wonder if around a year or so down the line we can look back and say that Druckenmiller actually came out near the bottom of the performance curve. My bet is that he won’t be far off and the next few months will tell the tale. I also would not mind betting that he makes a return to the markets himself at some stage in the future.

Until next time, good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. You can find out more about our trend following financial spread betting systems and spread betting strategies by clicking here. Our system comes with a full 30 day money back guarantee.

In our most recent post of spread trading strategies for gold we wrote that the $1215 level for gold was still key to the upside and failure for the market to clear that level would lead to a test of strong support at $1185. Last Friday’s close at $1185.8 was a new low close for 9 weeks, so without doubt the short term trend was moving down.

Considering the short term weakness in this market, a failure of support at $1185 should have led to a move down to the next support area at $1168, but having moved lower initially on Monday to $1176.9 the lows were rejected and the market climbed a bit but still closed below prior support at $1181.9, giving a new low close for this contract and a close below prior support.

Yesterday the market made another push lower but once again the market rejected the lows and pushed higher again. This formed a piercing pattern on the daily charts, which is a bullish reversal pattern and the market closed back above $1185 at $1191.7. At the time of writing this morning, the market is fairly quiet, hovering just below the $1190 level.

When considering which spread trading strategies to use on gold, there are a few things to consider, firstly, without a doubt the long term trend is still up and therefore the odds favour higher prices. It will take a large move to the downside to change that long term trend to down.

Also to be considered is that we have 2 good support levels in the market at $1168 and also at $1157. We also have a third good support level at $1125 and the obvious $1100 level as well. Therefore, to get a decent move to the downside would require bulldozing through several strong support levels.

In the more immediate term, the last 2 days candle patterns have reasonably long lower shadows and this indicates rejection of lower levels as well as yesterday’s piercing pattern, which is also bullish short term. I’m not a buyer at these levels as that would be counter to the short term trend and will be waiting for more strength before entering longs, but will not be entering short any time soon.

Good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. Find out more about LS Trader and our spread trading strategies by clicking here.

This month’s financial spread trading newsletter is now available. To read the newsletter, please enter your email address in the box at the top right hand corner of this page and we will send it to you instantly by email.

In this month’s issue we take a look at the majority of the 43 markets and the major market sectors that we spread trade at LS Trader, focusing particularly on the major stock indexes, commodity and forex markets as well as the interest rate futures sector which covers short term interest rates all the way through to 30 year bonds.

This month we focus primarily on the stock and forex markets, as that is where much of the action is likely to be over the coming weeks. We look specifically at major support and resistance levels in some of these markets as well as what our LS Trader trend indicators say about the markets and what may happen next.

In each month’s issue we focus on the long term trend and cover some spread trading strategies that can be used in the direction of the long term trends to increase the odds of successful trades.

We also have a market of the month section, which this month focuses on a market that has continued to rise against the odds and looks set to continue higher, especially if further weakness hits the stock markets.

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. To receive each month’s newsletter by email simply enter your name and email address in the box provided in the top right hand corner of this page for instant access.

P.P.S If you are not already a subscriber to the LS Trader system you can sign up for a risk free trail by clicking here. The LS Trader system is a complete spread trading service and comes with a 30 day no questions asked money back guarantee.

This week’s LS Trader financial spread trading update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

During the past week we saw an initial continuation of the stock market rally followed by failure to move higher at resistance and then a sharp reversal. We look at what may happen next for the S&P 500 focusing as ever on the long term trend and the impact that major moves from the S&P 500 on other markets.

As usual in addition to our stock market focus we look also at commodities, in particular Gold and Crude oil and the key levels to watch out for in both of these markets. We also look at the continuing rally in interest rate futures as traders seek safe haven investments.

On the subject of safe haven investments, the Japanese Yen has rallied to new highs for the year and the Swiss Franc has also risen to its highest level in almost 6 months, whilst the US dollar has continued to slide. Recently the dollar has gained when stocks have fallen and that inverse relationship seems to be abating at present as the US dollar index has fallen to new 10 week lows. This decline has been to the benefit of the Euro, which briefly touched $1.30 last week. We wrap up our forex focus with a look at the British Pound.

This week’s LS Trader financial spread trading update begins with:

The past week saw the recent stock market rally run out of steam and reverse sharply on Friday, which may be a sign of things to come.….continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. You can sign up for a risk free trial of the LS Trader financial spread trading system by clicking here. The system comes with a 30 day no questions asked money back guarantee and covers each of the stock, commodity and forex markets discussed above.

Today we have another post of spread trading strategies for the coming week, with our focus again on the S&P 500 and Gold. Gold seems to be the ever-popular market and the S&P 500 is the real stock market, so is as good a place as any for our attention.

Last week we wrote that the S&P 500 had been pushing up towards resistance at the 200 day moving average, which was also in the area of another round number, the 1100 area, but that the market was running out of steam at that level. On Wednesday we had a spinning top, Thursday was a northern doji and Friday was a long red candle.

The spinning top and northern doji are not reversal patterns but show that the market is struggling to push higher and has lost momentum. When this happens at a resistance level, which it is in this case, that adds to the bearish scenario. From there we still however need price confirmation to the downside and we got that in the form of the long red candle on Friday, which was a 2.5% down day.

If we look at the candles from Tuesday onwards we have a long green candle, 2 dojis and a long red candle. Although this does not technically make it an evening star pattern, I view it as such as the addition of the extra candle does not alter the market psychology at these levels. This pattern shows a shift back to bearishness in this market again, which is in the direction of the long term trend, down.

We wrote last week that we viewed the recent rally as a bear market rally and that more importantly we were in a classic bear market set up with a series of lower highs and lower lows. Last week’s highs look like yet another lower high in this market so we should now see another lower low, which would take out support at 1000 and give new lows for the year and will likely put a 9 handle on the price with the first sub 1000 target at 980.

The odds therefore favour a continuation lower to test 1000 support again and this market must be considered bearish below what I call resistance 1 at 1100 and resistance 2 at 1129. As we wrote last week, the short term remains bearish as long as the market stays below 1129 but a move above that would change the intermediate trend. Therefore, only short spread trading strategies should be considered here unless 1129 gets taken out to the upside.

Now let’s take another look at Gold. Last week we wrote that $1215 was looking like a key level in this market and that we were looking for a close above this level or a move back towards support at $1185 may follow. Gold cleared $1215 intra day but did not close above it and this led to a move back down to almost exactly $1185, with lows for the week at $1185.8.

We are therefore almost exactly at support 1 in this market and a breach of support here may bring $1170 in to play. For now the long term trend is still up as there has yet to be anywhere near enough weakness in this market for a long term change of trend to down. Our proprietary trend indicators at LS Trader show that the trend is down for the S&P 500 and stock indexes but still up for Gold.

Good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. Find out more about our spread trading strategies for stocks, commodities and forex by clicking here

It’s now around 8.20am on a Monday morning and my financial spread betting for the week is already done! Now all I do is wait for the weekend and can go about my business. I don’t have to worry at all about what the markets do as I know that most of what goes on in the markets on a day to day basis is just noise. My stop losses are in place to protect my trading capital from any losses and also to take me out of my profitable trades if the market reverses.

How is this possible? Well, the financial spread betting system that I created, the LS Trader system, is a medium to long term trend following system which only takes around 15 minutes each week to follow. This means that all we do is open trades up on a Monday morning, add some stop losses and then move the stop losses on trades that we had open from previous weeks.

Sometimes we will get stopped out after a day or two if the market moves against us and other times we could be in trades for several months if some nice trends develop. Last year there were several markets that trended very well and we were in numerous trades for more than 100 trading days (assuming 5 trading days per week, that’s more than 5 months for a single trade!)

To use the LS Trader system, all you do is log in to your account at the LS Trader website (once you have signed up) and go to the trade bet calculator page. On this page there is a full list of all the markets we trade and details of all the trades we are currently in as well as all the trades we are opening this week.

You then go to your spread betting platform, such as IG Index and go to the market that you want to open, check the current market price, enter this figure in to the bet size calculator that we provide. You then enter how much money you have to trade with and the calculator tells you exactly how much to bet per point. It’s so simple. The software also shows you exactly where to put your stop loss.

All in all this is a very simple process which takes on average around 15 minutes per week. This week is a busy week as we have 9 new trades to open, so it actually took me a few minutes longer than normal.

To follow this financial spread betting system you don’t need to know anything about trading or the financial markets and you certainly don’t need to be reading newspapers or watching TV trying to figure out what’s going on in the markets. There are no charts that you have to read or data feeds that you have to subscribe to.

We’ve actually made trading the markets very simple even for the complete novice. And you can do it all from the comfort of your own home on your pc in just a few minutes per week. You don’t even need to phone a broker as you can execute all your trades instantly online. Best of all, as what we are doing is trading the markets via financial spread betting all our profits are tax free! Currently spread betting is tax free in the UK.

The bottom line is trend following works. It’s been around for several decades and has always and will always work. It takes all the guess work out of trading as it has simple specific rules to follow which lead to capturing big profitable moves in the markets.

There are numerous top traders who use trend following as their trading strategy to consistently beat the markets. Now, we’re making a very powerful version of this trend following strategy available to you and we’ve done all the work for you. All you have to do is simply copy our trades. How easy is that?

If this sounds like something of interest to you, and after all why would it not be as who does not want to “work” for around 15 minutes a week to produce a tax free income, then simply click here to visit the LS Trader website and sign up.

Good luck in your trading

Phil Seaton

PS. Click here to sign up for the LS Trader system. The system comes with a no quibble 30 day unconditional money back guarantee.