This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

The week ahead could be an interesting one as there are a whole series of events and data releases due. Tomorrow we have the US mid-term elections and then on Wednesday we have the US Federal Reserve announcing their policy and the expected second round of quantitative easing. Next we have the Bank Of Japan meeting followed by the Bank of England and the European Central bank meetings. Then to round the week off we have the US employment data on Friday!

All I can say is that I’m glad that I don’t trade based on news events and fundamentals as sorting through that lot would be a nightmare. Instead we just follow the trend and let the market and the price be our guide. This is a far more effective strategy than firstly guessing what these announcements will all be and secondly, more importantly, what the market’s reaction to the events will be. The only thing for certain is that it should be an interesting week!

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

Stocks remained pretty flat for the week and seem to be waiting for next week’s event with the US mid-term elections on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday the Federal Reserve announces its quantitative easing policies. The dollar index has also been pretty flat ahead of next week’s events…..….continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. Find out more about our financial spread betting system for stocks, commodities and forex by clicking here. The system comes with a 30 day money back guarantee. Click here to sign up.

Today we are going to focus on some spread betting strategies using the 200 day moving average  and we will use the S&P 500 for our example.

The first thing to do on any market is to determine the direction of the long term trend for the market that you are looking to trade. Once you know this, you then select your spread betting strategies in the direction of the long term trend only and ignore signals in the opposite direction.

The reason for doing this is that counter trend moves have a much higher probability of not developing in to a good trend and moves against the trend are generally shorter in duration. In this case we are looking at the S&P 500, which is currently in a long term downtrend.

Each trader will have their own ways of determining the trend and this can be based on moving averages or any one of a number of indicators. One of the most popular indicators for determining this is simple moving averages. The most common time period for longer term trend analysis is the 200 day moving average. If the market is above the 200 day moving average, then the market would be in an uptrend and if below then it is in a downtrend.

I have developed my own proprietary indicators for determining the long term trend and each trader can do their own research to see which indicators and time periods they prefer. The 200 day moving average is widely used and is a good place to start, especially as many traders look at it.

On the S&P 500 September contract, the 200 day moving average is currently sitting at 1107, so as the market on Friday closed at 1070.3 this is below the 200 day moving average and the trend is down. Therefore, for the best chance of success, use only spread betting strategies from the short side.

In our last post on spread betting strategies for the S&P 500, in addition to observing the long term trend we also pointed out that the market was struggling with resistance from the 200 day moving average and the 1100 level. Since then the market had another go up towards the 1100 level and failed, moving back towards the support area at 1165 and even moving below that briefly.

Therefore, the short and long term trends are down so the odds favour lower prices in this market for now. Friday’s close at 1070.3 was a new low close for 4 weeks and this indicates short term weakness. For the short term, Friday’s lows of 1061.8 may provide support but if support here fails then we may see a move lower towards the 1000 level.

Until next time, good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. You can find out more about our financial spread betting systems and spread betting strategies by clicking here. Our system comes with a full 30 day money back guarantee.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here. We cover both markets that have been the focus of our recent series of spread betting strategies, gold and the S&P 500. Both of these markets could be setting up for decent moves and will be worth watching this week.

It’s been another volatile week for the markets and there have been decent moves in stocks, commodities and currencies. We’ve also seen a large move in the VIX, which is a measure of volatility, with the VIX rising by 20.7% during the past week.

Once again, the resistance level at 1229 on the S&P 500 held firm and stocks finally moved lower from here, breaking out of the recent trading range and resuming the longer term downtrend. As of Last Friday’s close, everything is pointing to lower levels for stocks at present but of late Monday’s have been fairly strong so we may have a cleared picture for the week ahead after tonight’s close.

Interest rate futures continue to do well, with new contract highs seen across the board. From a trend following perspective, interest rate futures have been the best trending sector for quite a while with a steady continuous uptrend seen. We’ve been riding this trend higher since the initial breakout back during the first week of May.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

Stocks made a breakout to the downside, in the direction of the long term trend and the US Dollar rose against the major currencies, reversing the recent trend..….continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. You can sign up for a risk free trial of our proprietary financial spread betting system by clicking here. The system comes with a 30 day no questions asked money back guarantee and covers our spread betting strategies for each of the stock, commodity and forex markets discussed above.

Today we are continuing our series of posts of spread betting strategies for the S&P 500 as the markets continue to be undecided on short term direction.

The past couple of days have seen some movement in the markets during the build up to the Federal Reserve meeting held yesterday. During that meeting the Fed downgraded their recovery outlook and said that interest rates would remain exceptionally low for an extended period. This is not at all surprising and is in line with my own fundamental view on the markets long term.

Since our last post, the S&P 500 has still be unable to clear the resistance level that we have been writing about for what seems like an age now. Resistance is still holding at 1129 on the September contract but at the same time any declines down towards 1100 are also being rejected and this can be seen by the long lower shadows formed on the daily candles.

The past seven sessions have therefore held within a range from 1127.5 to 1102 and a break out from that range could give some decent movement in the direction of the breakout. We also have a rising wedge pattern that is moving in to a narrower range and this also adds weight to a decent move from the eventual breakout. Long term the trend is still down for the S&P 500 so I’m still favouring spread betting strategies from the short side only and will continue to do so until we get a change of long term trend to up and that is some way off at present.

The 200 day moving average is currently sitting at 1106 on the September contract which is just below yesterday’s lows. Therefore this would be the first downside target, followed by 1100. If the market can break down through this support area then we may see a continuation lower towards 1050.

Until next time, good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. You can find out more about our financial spread betting systems and spread betting strategies by clicking here. Our system comes with a full 30 days money back guarantee.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here. The weekly update is to bring you up to speed on what has been happening in the markets over the past week as well as what to look out for in the coming week so that you can plan your spread betting strategies accordingly.

During the past week we saw continued weakness for the US dollar and an overall rise for the stock markets. The S&P 500 stayed below the key resistance level of 1129 but will likely test that level this week and possibly as early as today as the futures are opening higher at the time of writing this on Monday morning. European stocks indexes, in particular the German Dax, have continued to rise, and the Dax has reached its highest level in almost 2 years.

The best trending markets continue to come from the interest rate futures sector and all of the markets in this sector remain in a long term uptrend.

The biggest moves of the week came from the grains sector and we saw some limit moves from Wheat as well as higher prices virtually across the board from the grains markets.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The past week has seen US stocks continue to move higher but still remain within the overall lateral trading range. Last week’s US jobs figure sent the markets tumbling at the US open on Friday but then show a strong recovery. We may see a breakout for stocks this coming week..….continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. You can sign up for a risk free trial of our proprietary financial spread betting system by clicking here. The system comes with a 30 day no questions asked money back guarantee and covers each of the stock, commodity and forex markets discussed above.

Our last post of spread betting strategies focused on Gold and the S&P 500 and we’re going to continue with those two markets today.

Beginning with Gold, we last said that we had a bull harami pattern, which was indicating that the bears were running out of steam. We also said that there was support around the $1150 area and that the markets was still above the 200 day moving average.

The bull harami pattern has so far proven to be the short term bottom and we have now had 5 successive up days in the December Gold contract. Yesterday the market pierced the $1200 level intra day, reaching a high of $1205.5 but was unable to close above that psychological number and pulled back to $1195.9 on a close. We need to see a close above $1200 in this market soon otherwise we may see a pullback to the bottom of the bull harami pattern.

The long term trend is still up for gold but a break above $1220 resistance will be required before entering longs. For now only spread betting strategies from the long side should be considered as the long term trend is up. I would not consider shorting this market yet for that reason and would need further downside confirmation to change that point of view.

On to the S&P 500 September contract. The S&P 500 has so far not pierced the resistance levels seen on the 21^st June, although it is very close to doing so. The Dow and FTSE have both already cleared that resistance level. At the time of writing this morning the September contract is at 1125 so it is very likely that we will get a test of resistance today. Since the resistance at 1129 is major (it has held since 18^th May) a breakthrough may provide the impetus for a move higher towards 1170.

Even if the S&P 500 does clear this level the long term trend is down, so I won’t be taking this breakout if it does come as it is counter to the long term trend.

Until next time, good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. You can find out more about our financial spread betting systems and spread betting strategies by clicking here.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here. The aim of this update is to help you decide on your spread betting strategies for the week ahead.

During the past week we saw further weakness for the US dollar and indecision in the stock markets which having tested recent highs ended the week pretty much where they began. In early trading on Monday stocks have begun the week higher and we may get a test of 1118 on the S&P 500, which is resistance 1 soon. If that level is cleared then a test of resistance level 2 may follow, which is major resistance at 1129. The trend remains down as long as resistance level 2 holds.

Elsewhere the commodity markets had a good week with some decent up-moves seen in numerous markets, especially in the grains sector. One of the few commodity markets that did not fare so well was gold but this market seems to have found support.

The strongest and best trending sector at the moment continues to be the interest rate futures and both the 5 & 10 year T notes made new contract highs during the past week. We continue to be long this sector and have been since early May.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The past week saw the stock markets continue in the mixed fashion that we have seen of late and the markets remain undecided on future direction. We have also seen commodities begin to pick up, with some markets making decent moves to the upside and have seen continued weakness for the US Dollar.….continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. You can sign up for a risk free trial of our proprietary financial spread betting system by clicking here. The system comes with a 30 day no questions asked money back guarantee and covers each of the stock, commodity and forex markets discussed above.

Today we are going to discuss spread betting strategies that can be used ahead of a major news item. Later today the second quarter US GDP numbers come out and we get asked frequently about which spread betting strategies we use ahead of such major news announcements.

The answer is actually quite simple. Since we are technical traders and follow mechanical trading rules we are either already in a trade if we want to be in it, or know where we will get in should our entry criteria be hit. We don’t base our trading decisions on trying to predict the news items, or how the markets will react to the news. We simply follow the trend.

Since our spread betting system is a weekly system, we don’t enter trades immediately before, during or after a news item as we are already in the trades that we want to be in. We don’t therefore enter again until the following Monday, using the closing price on Friday as our entry should the price action in the immediately preceding week trigger a buy or sell signal for us. We therefore use spread betting strategies based on a weekly timeframe and don’t concern ourselves with intraday news.

Trading systems are either predictive or reactive. We don’t get involved in trying to predict, but rather react to price action. We know already where we want to get in and where we want to get out based on the price and chart structure. The rest is irrelevant. Should the market exceed the levels that we have predetermined will be optimum for entry, either for long or short trades, then we will enter. If the market does not exceed those levels then we stay out.

Let’s just look at what is expected today as far as the news is concerned out of interest, although we won’t be basing any of our spread betting strategies on it. Economists are expecting that US GDP growth for the second quarter will come in at 2.5%. I expect that it may disappoint and come in lower than that, possibly closer to 2%. If that does happen then we may see a reaction to the news that moves stocks and currencies considerably.

We have already covered this week that the long term trend is down for stocks and have identified a couple of key resistance levels, which are 1118 and 1129 on the September S&P 500. As long as the market stays below those 2 levels then the short and long term trends will remain down and the odds favour lower prices.

Yesterday we got a close below the important 1100 level at 1097 on the September contract and also below the 200 day moving average, which many traders look at. We also had an evening star pattern form on the S&P 500 earlier in the week which is bearish for the short term so various things point to lower prices to come.

What this really boils down to is that you should have a trading plan in place ahead of any news items or price reactions and know exactly what you are going to do and why. Once you have your plan in place then you stick to spread betting strategies within that plan and trade accordingly.

There are many traders and economists that try to predict news items and how the markets will react to the news item depending on what the numbers are. It’s far better in my opinion to just focus on the most important indicator of all, which is the price itself. Then all you have to do is follow the price and the trend.

Until next time, good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. You can find out more about our financial spread betting systems and spread betting strategies by clicking here.

Today we are looking at bearish price patterns and spread betting strategies. We will base this primarily on the S&P 500 as that is the primary stock index that we focus on. The reason we do this is that the S&P 500 is the real stock market and the other indexes tend to take their cues from the S&P 500.

There have been a few key levels and indicators in the S&P 500 that we have been writing about of late. We have previously been focusing on resistance from 1100 when the market was below that level and also the major resistance at 1129.

Friday’s close on the September S&P 500 contract was bang on 1100 and this week continued the recent short term strength and pushed up above 1100 and the 200 day moving average. This was relatively bullish short term and the market continued higher to 1118 on Tuesday. Critically, this move fell short of resistance at 1129, so the short and long term trends remain down. This means that only bearish spread betting strategies should be considered at this time as the odds favour lower prices.

Considering the recent strength and the fact that this market cleared 1100 and the 200 day moving average we should perhaps have seen more follow through and an actual test of 1129, but the rally fell short. We also have an evening star pattern formed in this market over the last 3 sessions, which is a bearish reversal pattern and suggests a top in the market. When we have an evening star, we use the top of the pattern as resistance, which in this case is Tuesday’s high of 1118. If the market moves above 1118, especially on a close, then this pattern is negated and a likely test of 1129 resistance will probably follow.

Yesterday’s price action also took the market back down towards support at 1100, with a low for the day at 1099.5, before closing at 1102. This is once again right on the 200 day moving average as well as support from the 1100 level. In the short term then this market can clearly go either way and the levels to watch are 1100 to the downside and 1118 and 1129 to the upside.

As long as 1129 resistance holds, this market is in a bearish set up and the long term trend is down, so we’ll continue to favour spread betting strategies from the short side and reject longs for now.

One other point of interest, certainly for UK residents who use spread betting is the bearish formation on the FTSE. The FTSE is not a market that I like because of its lack of trending properties, but I know many traders in the UK follow it. On Tuesday we had a shooting star pattern, which confirmed resistance at 5385, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern on Wednesday. This suggests a top in this market, and as long as 5385 resistance holds then bearish spread betting strategies should also be favoured here. The long term trend in the FTSE is also down, as with the S&P 500.

Until next time, good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. You can find out more about our financial spread betting systems and spread betting strategies by clicking here.

In our last post of spread betting strategies for Gold, posted Friday morning, we wrote that Gold was in a trading range between $1200 and $1175. Later on that day Gold actually pierced $1200 resistance intra day but was unable to stay above that level and proceeded lower.

On Monday the market was lower again and yesterday we got a downside breakout through support at $1175 (August contract). IG Index is now quoting Gold on the December contract so we now shift our focus to December’s contract. There is actually only $3.80 difference between the 2 contracts, with last night’s close on August at $1158 and December’s at $1161.8

Looking at the December contract there is some support at $1161, which is right where last night closed. In early trading this morning the market is around $5 higher at the time of writing this. Slightly below that support level we also have the 200 day moving average, which may also provide support. The 200 day moving average is currently sitting at $1150.

Candlechart pattern wise we have 3 consecutive red candles, which indicates 3 straight down days, with yesterday being a log red candle for the large move down from highs of $1190, down almost $30 in the day to $1161.8.

The short term is without doubt down, but the long term trend is still up and the market is above the 200 day moving average, which many traders will be watching. There are still other levels of support in this market that need to be cleared before a long term change of trend to down is confirmed, so for now we are sitting on the sidelines in this market. Longer term we’re still therefore only looking at spread betting strategies from the long side, but will need to see a move back above $1222 before there is any upside momentum.

Good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. Find out more about LS Trader financial spread betting system and our spread betting strategies by clicking here.