This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

Following the recent very strong run seen in stocks we are seeing some correction, as we have been expecting. The markets have not quite reached our target at 1355 on the S&P 500 but are moving lower already this morning. That said, it is still early days and that are a couple of factors, which could change that later in the day. These are:

1. Monday’s for much of the past 2-3 years have generally been bullish
2. The U.S. markets don’t seem to like it when moves happen outside of their market opening hours and such moves are often reversed.

Considering the above things could still go either way today but certainly 1355 will need to be taken out for the bullish scenario to continue in the short term. A correction or consolidation would not be particularly surprising.

The down move in stocks has as ever correlated with a gain for the dollar as stocks and the dollar are generally inversely correlated. We did write about signs of buying coming in on the dollar index last week due to the presence of a series of lower shadows on the daily candles. Obviously we got the inverted shadows on the Euro last week indicating a rjection of higher prices, so this morning’s move lower is not all that surprising.

Gold has also continued with weakness, again this follows on from the large bearish engulfing pattern formed on Friday. The trend remains down for gold, up for the dollar overall (albeit with a couple of exceptions) and up for stocks.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: It’s been another week of risk on, which has seen stocks continue in bullish mode and the dollar continue its recent weakness. The trend continues to be up for stocks and is still up overall for the dollar but that may be going to change. Commodities for the most part have continued to benefit from dollar weakness………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

The markets are relatively flat in this morning’s trading and there is little to report. Of interest this week will be the success or failure of stocks, in particular the S&P 500, of breaking resistance levels. For now the trend is still down for stocks.

The dollar may also be of interest having been quite well supported last week, in particular against the Euro which has fallen to 15 month lows. The trend remains up for the dollar and the dollar is still currently in bullish mode. Some sort of move that clarifies short-term direction for stocks and the dollar may happen this week.

As we cover in this week’s update, today marks the fifth trading day of the year which on a historical basis acts as an early warning for the year ahead with quite a high degree of accuracy for a seasonal indicator, which to my mind are not terrible accurate and trading decisions should not be made on these things alone. That said, this first five trading days early warning and the January Barometer on the whole does seem to have more statistical validity than most season indicators so it can be worth paying attention to. The data will be in for the first five days early warning following tonight’s close.

As I have covered elsewhere many times of late I expect this year to be a down year for stocks regardless of the first five trading days results or the January Barometer for a whole number of reasons, but time will tell. The most important thing as ever is to continue to follow the trends and let the markets tell us where they wish to go and not waste time (and usually money) trying to predict the future.

Nobody can predict the future with any accuracy, so the best we can do when trying to predict the future is to form a general idea on what we think may happen and use some form of technical trigger for timing in the direction of our ideas. As the records of the most successfully traders amply demonstrates, technical systems outperform discretionary systems, and trying to predict the future definitely falls into the category of discretion. Very few will be successful with such an approach.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

As we kicked off the new trading year we saw a bullish week for the dollar with moves very much in the direction of the long-term trend and also a continuation of short-term strength in stocks. This is an unusual move as stocks and the dollar are historically inversely correlated. The long-term trend for stocks remain down but if short-term strength continues that may change soon. The trend for commodities is also down but commodities during the first week of the year have been mixed………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

Following last week’s shortened trading week due to the US Thanksgiving Holiday, which was the worst Thanksgiving week stocks wise since 1932, the markets have begun this week in a much more bullish fashion, paring some of last week’s losses. This is not all that unexpected considering the extent of recent moves which have seen the stock indexes decline for 7 straight sessions, so a bounce is not altogether surprising. The long-term trends however are still very much intact so how long this bullish move continues for remains to be seen.

Friday saw some bullish retail numbers coming out which is possibly lifting the mood and today is “Cyber Monday” where retail figures normally continue to do well especially with shoppers seeking bargain deals in tough economic conditions. However, normal is nothing something that cannot really be aimed at the current economic situation or the markets, which for the most part this year have been anything but normal. This was typified last week by the normally bullish Thanksgiving week being the worst since 1932. Therefore the seasonal argument for December being bullish and people starting to look for the much-discussed Santa Claus rally in late December does come into question. Time of course will tell

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The past week was a shortened trading week due to the US Thanksgiving Holiday and it was a negative week for stocks and commodities but a bullish week for the dollar.

The long-term trends remain in place, and are down for stocks and commodities, and up for the dollar and interest rate futures…….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In early trading this morning stocks have continued to edge higher and the S&P 500 may continue towards 1260. Much of course may depend on the outcome of the meetings in Europe and Wednesday’s deadline to reach a solution. This could lead to some movement in stocks in the days ahead.

On the currency front the dollar is flat this morning and we did see a pause in the recent 3 week dollar weakness commencing towards the end of last week. As we wrote in this week’s update, several currencies are now pushing towards resistance levels and whether there is sufficient strength to push through those resistance levels following the recent rally remains to be seen. Momentum does appear to be waning in the currency markets. The Euro in particular is testing a fairly decent resistance area between current prices and the $1.40 level.

Much of this year has been plagued by uncertainty in the global financial markets and this has been reflected in high volatility across many markets. Although there have been some decent trends, most markets have failed to develop into sustain trends and have reverted to their prior trading ranges. This is a situation that will not continue indefinitely and bodes well for profitable trading conditions in the not too distant future.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

Stocks have continued their recent short-term strength while commodities have for the most part continued lower although there are exceptions. The dollar ended the week lower for a third straight week but the moves seen in the currency markets have been far from convincing. Long-term trends remain as before, up for the dollar and down for stocks and commodities….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

The strength seen in equities over the past week since the bounce from 1 year lows has continued this morning and the S&P 500 looks set to test a critical resistance level at 1230. How the market fares once it reaches that level will give a good indication as to what can be expected over the next few weeks. Overall the conditions still remain bearish for stocks and most commodities and in spite of recent strength that will not change in most markets unless considerable strength is seen.

The only stock index that looks like it may have a change of long-term trend to up on the horizon is the Nasdaq 100. The highs for the year are now in range and could be tested this week. A breach of the highs for the year would return the Nasdaq 100 to bullish.

The dollar has taken a bit of a beating over the past couple of weeks but remains in a long-term uptrend almost across the board. In early trading this morning the dollar is higher.

As we note in this week’s update, several markets across different sectors are approaching key resistance levels so this will be a good test to see how strong the recent rally actually is. Due to the extent of the recent moves and the short timeframe that they have occurred in a pullback would not be surprising.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The reversal from 1 year lows formed during the previous week continued this week and the markets are now approaching key resistance levels, as in fact are many markets including commodities and currencies. The past couple of weeks’ moves have been counter to the long term trend and the long term trends all remain intact, so still down for stocks and commodities but up for the dollar. ..…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

It’s been a few weeks since I last wrote an update for this blog as I have been away on holiday. During my break I have still been trading and running the LS Trader and LS Forex sites as normal but did not get around to providing additional updates for my blog. Now that I am back things should return to normal.

So, since I’ve been away a lot of interesting things have been happening in the markets, and most of them have been along the lines of what we have been writing about in recent updates. In fact, in my last update on this blog I wrote about the expectation that the US Federal Reserve would return with a new round of QE3 in one form or another and we did see that with the so called Operation Twist. This move has subsequently not been particularly well received by the markets, which have been sharply lower on the whole over the past few weeks.

September as expected turned out to be its traditional weak month with stocks moving sharply lower. Commodities also moved sharply lower with the prime beneficiary being the US dollar. As we have been saying for a while, although the US dollar is a terribly flawed currency, it is still the primary safe haven currency, due to its status as the world’s reserve currency, and the fact that the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen, the other 2 safe haven currencies, have been weakened of late by intervention from their respective central banks.

This trend of money moving back into the dollar is something that looks set to continue as we will likely see considerable further stock and commodity weakness over the coming months. That’s not to say that the dollar will go straight up and the stocks and commodities will go straight down, as that’s not the way markets work, but it is to say that the likely trends ahead will be bullish for the dollar and bearish for stocks and commodities. In very early trading this morning, stocks are continuing lower and the dollar is ahead.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: It would be safe to say that fear has returned to the markets and that we are overall seeing a risk-off strategy being employed by many market participants and this is leading to many markets selling off sharply and entering bear market territory. The main exception is the US dollar, which as we have suggested recently would benefit from stock market weakness and its perceived safe haven status…….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

This week is a shortened trading week in the US due to the Labor Day Holiday. US Markets are therefore closed today. Markets elsewhere though are open as normal. However, just because the US markets are officially closed does not mean that there is no activity! European indexes have continued their declines from last week and are currently sharply lower as are US index futures.

Also so far today we have seen some haven buying with the dollar gaining against most of the majors and pushing both the pound and the Euro lower. Additionally, the riskier commodity based currencies are sharply lower.

At the same time Gold has pushed higher once again and has already been back above the $1900 level and is once again not far from the recent all time highs and it would not be surprising at all to see all time highs hit this week.

As we cover in this week’s update, we’re now in the weakest month of the year for stock indexes on an historical basis and weakness typically really gets underway in the second week of the month, which is next week. If this week continues as it has begun then we could see some big number lower for the stock indexes which may be a strong prompt for a further round of quantitative easing, known as QE3 when the US Federal Reserve meets again later this month. It is also possible that we will see further easing from the Bank of England, and maybe as soon as this week, which if it happens will likely put the pound under further pressure.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

This coming week is a shortened trading week due to the US Labor Day holiday and US markets will therefore be closed. This holiday is often followed by some strength for stock indexes early in the week but that often runs out of steam relatively quickly………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

Early trading this morning has seen a jump higher for European stock indexes, which is translating to higher futures prices for US indexes as well at present. Crude Oil opened significantly lower but has since recovered, but the ever-impressive Gold continues to rise, having already posted a new all time high this morning. Gold came within 2 dollars of the $1900 level this morning on the December contract, with the new all time high coming in at $1898. The market is slightly off that level now but if $1900 can be cleared the possibility of $2000 before yearend becomes a distinct possibility.

Silver is also pressing nicely higher this morning following last week’s breakout but is still lagging gold’s advances. I know of a few metals experts who are expecting Silver to perform better than gold in the future as the gold/silver ratio is out of balance compared to the historical norm. Either way, both metals are in a strong uptrend at present and chart wise the target for silver will be the highs of the year around the $49.50-$50 area.

On balance, the US dollar is weaker, although not dramatically so and focus will be on the May lows at 7332 on the dollar index. Currency traders will also have an eye on the Japanese Yen as the prospect of further intervention from the Bank of Japan to weaken the Yen is expected this week.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

Volatility has remained high over the past week, which has overall seen continued weakness for stocks and the dollar, as well as several commodities. The exception to that is the metals sector, which has once again seen new all time highs for Gold….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

This week began with a hugely volatile trading day on Monday which saw some very large swings in both directions in several markets. At the time of writing this, the US looks set to avoid a default following a return vote of 269 to 161 in favour of increasing the debt ceiling. The new legislation plans to increase the debt ceiling until 2013 and reduce spending by $2400bn over 10 years and is set for a final vote from the senate on Tuesday. As we have written before here, in the long run this is likely to make little difference as the US debt has already gone beyond the point of no return. This is very much a case of kicking the can down the road.

The markets so far do not seem to be comfortable with the current situation as weak economic data continues to come forward and this has lead to treasury yields falling to new 8 month lows as safe haven markets come into demand once again. The Swiss franc, another safe haven market has also yesterday risen to yet another all time high. The prospect of further quantitative easing looks highly likely and this will be to the further detriment of the US dollar.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: All the focus will be on the US debt debate relating to raising the US debt ceiling in order for the US to avoid default and lose their AAA credit rating. It is in reality a joke that the US still holds this status as their debt levels are already beyond the point of no return and the fact that the US still holds the triple A rating shows how much of a joke the rating agencies are…..…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In early trading this morning the dollar has for the most part been lower, especially against the Swiss Franc, which has seen a large decline for the dollar to new all time lows. We wrote in this week’s update about safe haven demand for the Swiss Franc and Gold and so far both of these markets are higher, with gold once again making new all time highs.

During the past week stocks resumed the long-term uptrend having bounced nicely off short-term support levels early in the week but stocks are a bit lower this morning. The dollar resumed the long-term downtrend last week falling virtually across the board. Commodities have been mixed but have benefited from a weaker dollar and this has seen Gold hit new all time highs once again. Aside from Gold and Silver, commodities are mostly lower this morning.

Crude may be in focus this week with the prospect of $100 Crude in range this week. Whether resistance at $100 will hold remains to be seen. So far this morning crude has backed off that level and is moving lower. $100 will be the level to watch as an indicator to short term price action.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

Risk appetite has returned to the markets after a week of volatility but some safe haven markets such as gold and the Swiss franc are still in demand, so investors still remain undecided on future price moves….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.