This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

The markets are relatively flat in this morning’s trading and there is little to report. Of interest this week will be the success or failure of stocks, in particular the S&P 500, of breaking resistance levels. For now the trend is still down for stocks.

The dollar may also be of interest having been quite well supported last week, in particular against the Euro which has fallen to 15 month lows. The trend remains up for the dollar and the dollar is still currently in bullish mode. Some sort of move that clarifies short-term direction for stocks and the dollar may happen this week.

As we cover in this week’s update, today marks the fifth trading day of the year which on a historical basis acts as an early warning for the year ahead with quite a high degree of accuracy for a seasonal indicator, which to my mind are not terrible accurate and trading decisions should not be made on these things alone. That said, this first five trading days early warning and the January Barometer on the whole does seem to have more statistical validity than most season indicators so it can be worth paying attention to. The data will be in for the first five days early warning following tonight’s close.

As I have covered elsewhere many times of late I expect this year to be a down year for stocks regardless of the first five trading days results or the January Barometer for a whole number of reasons, but time will tell. The most important thing as ever is to continue to follow the trends and let the markets tell us where they wish to go and not waste time (and usually money) trying to predict the future.

Nobody can predict the future with any accuracy, so the best we can do when trying to predict the future is to form a general idea on what we think may happen and use some form of technical trigger for timing in the direction of our ideas. As the records of the most successfully traders amply demonstrates, technical systems outperform discretionary systems, and trying to predict the future definitely falls into the category of discretion. Very few will be successful with such an approach.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

As we kicked off the new trading year we saw a bullish week for the dollar with moves very much in the direction of the long-term trend and also a continuation of short-term strength in stocks. This is an unusual move as stocks and the dollar are historically inversely correlated. The long-term trend for stocks remain down but if short-term strength continues that may change soon. The trend for commodities is also down but commodities during the first week of the year have been mixed………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

It’s been a relatively quiet start to the trading week with stocks and the dollar pretty much flat at the time of writing, although the Nikkei was lower by 1.26% in overnight trading.

Traders will be on the lookout for the Santa Claus rally, which historically runs for around the last 5 trading days of the year through to the first 2 trading days of the New Year. Whether this happens this year remains to be seen but unless there is a strong rally which currently appears less likely, December is looking like a negative month for stock indexes. It may also be a negative year for stocks as the S&P 500 opened the year at 1234, so unless we get some upward movement from today’s level the markets will be down for this year.

Following some large movements last week in the energy and metals sector, particularly Gold and Crude oil, it will be interesting to see what happens this week and whether weakness continues or if we get some kind of bounce higher. Gold in spite of the large sell off last week is still quite well ahead for the year but considerably lower than the all time highs posted in September.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

As the year moves into the last 2 trading weeks, the long-term trends continue as they have for much of the year, down for stocks and commodities, and up for the dollar and interest rate futures.

Last Friday was triple witching, which saw stock index futures and forex futures roll out of December into June………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

Following last week’s shortened trading week due to the US Thanksgiving Holiday, which was the worst Thanksgiving week stocks wise since 1932, the markets have begun this week in a much more bullish fashion, paring some of last week’s losses. This is not all that unexpected considering the extent of recent moves which have seen the stock indexes decline for 7 straight sessions, so a bounce is not altogether surprising. The long-term trends however are still very much intact so how long this bullish move continues for remains to be seen.

Friday saw some bullish retail numbers coming out which is possibly lifting the mood and today is “Cyber Monday” where retail figures normally continue to do well especially with shoppers seeking bargain deals in tough economic conditions. However, normal is nothing something that cannot really be aimed at the current economic situation or the markets, which for the most part this year have been anything but normal. This was typified last week by the normally bullish Thanksgiving week being the worst since 1932. Therefore the seasonal argument for December being bullish and people starting to look for the much-discussed Santa Claus rally in late December does come into question. Time of course will tell

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The past week was a shortened trading week due to the US Thanksgiving Holiday and it was a negative week for stocks and commodities but a bullish week for the dollar.

The long-term trends remain in place, and are down for stocks and commodities, and up for the dollar and interest rate futures…….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In early trading this morning the dollar is once again gaining ground and regaining some of the losses seen during the latter part of last week. The long-term trend continues to favour the dollar almost across the board. Further dollar strength, should it come, will lead to a test of some key support/resistance areas against several of the major currencies and any breakouts may lead to some decent moves in favour of the dollar, which would pressure stocks and commodities. So far this morning, in spite of mild dollar strength, stocks and commodities are higher.

That said, we are in a seasonally bullish time of year and due to the normal inverse relationship between stocks and the dollar (as well as commodities) any stock rallies would pressure the dollar once more. As we write in this week’s update, the market to focus on is the S&P 500, with resistance around 1300 and support around 1200. A break of either of these levels will likely lead to a clearer picture.

Since last week’s update both the Greek and Italian PMs have both resigned and that goes to further emphasise the troubles within the Eurozone, which don’t like to be improving anytime soon.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The long-term trends still remain intact across the 4 primary sectors of stocks, commodities, forex and interest rate futures but many markets are in short term ranges and possibly on the verge of breakouts. Currently these trends are down for stocks and commodities, and up for the dollar and interest rate futures…….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In this week’s update published yesterday we wrote about the indecision that was evident in numerous stocks and commodities by the small real bodied candles or dojis seen on Friday. These patterns represent indecision, especially at resistance levels, which is where the markets were heading on Thursday prior to the pattern.

We also wrote that there were a couple of bear haramis in the forex markets, which although not exactly a reversal pattern, does indicate that buying had dried up or at the very least lost momentum. We also wrote that in spite of recent strength in stocks and weakness in the US dollar that the long-term trends still remained intact and that reversals were possible to resume moves in the direction of the primary trend.

We also warned of the likelihood of intervention from the Bank of Japan to weaken the Yen following its ascent to record highs last week and they intervened on Monday morning early, which was quicker than many expected. This sent the dollar soaring by 5% against the Yen and we also see the dollar sharply higher across the board.

We suggested that the week ahead would be an interesting one and it certainly is, by early Monday morning! Long-term trends remain intact, down for stocks and commodities and up for the dollar.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The past 3-4 weeks have been a similar story, with stocks continuing to rally, while the dollar has declined. Commodities remain mixed but for the most part are still in long-term downtrends. As summer comes to a close we enter what is seasonally a bullish time of year for stocks but following the strong October rallies it remains to be seen how much is left to the upside…..…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In early trading this morning stocks have continued to edge higher and the S&P 500 may continue towards 1260. Much of course may depend on the outcome of the meetings in Europe and Wednesday’s deadline to reach a solution. This could lead to some movement in stocks in the days ahead.

On the currency front the dollar is flat this morning and we did see a pause in the recent 3 week dollar weakness commencing towards the end of last week. As we wrote in this week’s update, several currencies are now pushing towards resistance levels and whether there is sufficient strength to push through those resistance levels following the recent rally remains to be seen. Momentum does appear to be waning in the currency markets. The Euro in particular is testing a fairly decent resistance area between current prices and the $1.40 level.

Much of this year has been plagued by uncertainty in the global financial markets and this has been reflected in high volatility across many markets. Although there have been some decent trends, most markets have failed to develop into sustain trends and have reverted to their prior trading ranges. This is a situation that will not continue indefinitely and bodes well for profitable trading conditions in the not too distant future.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

Stocks have continued their recent short-term strength while commodities have for the most part continued lower although there are exceptions. The dollar ended the week lower for a third straight week but the moves seen in the currency markets have been far from convincing. Long-term trends remain as before, up for the dollar and down for stocks and commodities….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

The strength seen in equities over the past week since the bounce from 1 year lows has continued this morning and the S&P 500 looks set to test a critical resistance level at 1230. How the market fares once it reaches that level will give a good indication as to what can be expected over the next few weeks. Overall the conditions still remain bearish for stocks and most commodities and in spite of recent strength that will not change in most markets unless considerable strength is seen.

The only stock index that looks like it may have a change of long-term trend to up on the horizon is the Nasdaq 100. The highs for the year are now in range and could be tested this week. A breach of the highs for the year would return the Nasdaq 100 to bullish.

The dollar has taken a bit of a beating over the past couple of weeks but remains in a long-term uptrend almost across the board. In early trading this morning the dollar is higher.

As we note in this week’s update, several markets across different sectors are approaching key resistance levels so this will be a good test to see how strong the recent rally actually is. Due to the extent of the recent moves and the short timeframe that they have occurred in a pullback would not be surprising.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The reversal from 1 year lows formed during the previous week continued this week and the markets are now approaching key resistance levels, as in fact are many markets including commodities and currencies. The past couple of weeks’ moves have been counter to the long term trend and the long term trends all remain intact, so still down for stocks and commodities but up for the dollar. ..…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

This week is a shortened trading week in the US due to the Labor Day Holiday. US Markets are therefore closed today. Markets elsewhere though are open as normal. However, just because the US markets are officially closed does not mean that there is no activity! European indexes have continued their declines from last week and are currently sharply lower as are US index futures.

Also so far today we have seen some haven buying with the dollar gaining against most of the majors and pushing both the pound and the Euro lower. Additionally, the riskier commodity based currencies are sharply lower.

At the same time Gold has pushed higher once again and has already been back above the $1900 level and is once again not far from the recent all time highs and it would not be surprising at all to see all time highs hit this week.

As we cover in this week’s update, we’re now in the weakest month of the year for stock indexes on an historical basis and weakness typically really gets underway in the second week of the month, which is next week. If this week continues as it has begun then we could see some big number lower for the stock indexes which may be a strong prompt for a further round of quantitative easing, known as QE3 when the US Federal Reserve meets again later this month. It is also possible that we will see further easing from the Bank of England, and maybe as soon as this week, which if it happens will likely put the pound under further pressure.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

This coming week is a shortened trading week due to the US Labor Day holiday and US markets will therefore be closed. This holiday is often followed by some strength for stock indexes early in the week but that often runs out of steam relatively quickly………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

This week has begun in a similar fashion to last week with further selling of stocks and continued weakness overall for commodities. Gold has already soared to new highs having crossed the $1700 level already this morning. The December contract has been as high as $1718 already, a new all time high. Silver has also recovered after the heavy selling seen late last week and is now testing the $40 level once again.

Stock indexes are down to the lows seen last week, which are the lowest levels seen for stocks since November last year. We’ve written previously about the large head and shoulders top on the S&P 500, which suggested a target of 1125 and that level may still be reached. The long-term trend is down now for global stock indexes.

The week ahead promises to be interesting as we are already seeing Central Banks act to intervene and may see more of that this week. Tomorrow is the FOMC meeting which based on what has happened over the past couple of weeks may see an announcement that QE3 is on it’s way. Whether such a move can arrest the decline of stocks remains to be seen but it will very likely be to the detriment of the US dollar.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

In last week’s update we wrote “It is in reality a joke that the US still holds this status as their debt levels are already beyond the point of no return and the fact that the US still holds the triple A rating shows how much of a joke the rating agencies are.” This weekend has seen the S&P downgrade the US from their triple AAA rating for the first time in history. This may have a considerable effect on global markets over the coming months and other rating agencies will likely follow suit and possibly begin downgrading other Countries as well………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In early trading this morning the dollar has for the most part been lower, especially against the Swiss Franc, which has seen a large decline for the dollar to new all time lows. We wrote in this week’s update about safe haven demand for the Swiss Franc and Gold and so far both of these markets are higher, with gold once again making new all time highs.

During the past week stocks resumed the long-term uptrend having bounced nicely off short-term support levels early in the week but stocks are a bit lower this morning. The dollar resumed the long-term downtrend last week falling virtually across the board. Commodities have been mixed but have benefited from a weaker dollar and this has seen Gold hit new all time highs once again. Aside from Gold and Silver, commodities are mostly lower this morning.

Crude may be in focus this week with the prospect of $100 Crude in range this week. Whether resistance at $100 will hold remains to be seen. So far this morning crude has backed off that level and is moving lower. $100 will be the level to watch as an indicator to short term price action.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

Risk appetite has returned to the markets after a week of volatility but some safe haven markets such as gold and the Swiss franc are still in demand, so investors still remain undecided on future price moves….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.