This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

This update is coming to you one day later than normal due to the U.S. markets being closed on Monday due to the Martin Luther King Holiday. Although other world markets were open relatively little usually happens as volume us light until U.S. markets open again.

This held true again this year with little happening yesterday. This morning though has seen stocks open higher and the inverse correlation between stocks and the dollar that we covered in this week’s update is showing up this morning and the dollar is lower. The other part of that inverse correlation is between the dollar and commodities, and a lower dollar usually equals higher commodity prices and we are seeing that again this morning with commodities, particularly gold and crude both higher this morning.

This morning’s rise in stocks has taken the S&P 500 up to test the critical 1300 level, which if cleared, especially during the U.S. session later on today may well lead to a move higher towards the May 2011 highs. This may subsequently lead to new highs for stocks since the March 09 lows but that remains to be seen. Of all the stock indexes that we trade, only the S&P 500 is in a long term uptrend although the Nasdaq 100 is close to giving a change of trend. The Nikkei and Dax are lagging behind so overall the trend for stocks is still down. The trend is also still down for commodities and up for the dollar.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: We wrote last week that the way the year has started with both stocks and the dollar rising is unusual and this has continued this week. The dollar index has risen to its highest level in a year and the S&P 500 has also reached a multi-month high. Stocks and the dollar are historically inversely correlated so how much longer both markets continue to rise together for remains to be seen. Probably not very long will be the answer………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

It’s been a relatively quiet start to the trading week with stocks and the dollar pretty much flat at the time of writing, although the Nikkei was lower by 1.26% in overnight trading.

Traders will be on the lookout for the Santa Claus rally, which historically runs for around the last 5 trading days of the year through to the first 2 trading days of the New Year. Whether this happens this year remains to be seen but unless there is a strong rally which currently appears less likely, December is looking like a negative month for stock indexes. It may also be a negative year for stocks as the S&P 500 opened the year at 1234, so unless we get some upward movement from today’s level the markets will be down for this year.

Following some large movements last week in the energy and metals sector, particularly Gold and Crude oil, it will be interesting to see what happens this week and whether weakness continues or if we get some kind of bounce higher. Gold in spite of the large sell off last week is still quite well ahead for the year but considerably lower than the all time highs posted in September.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

As the year moves into the last 2 trading weeks, the long-term trends continue as they have for much of the year, down for stocks and commodities, and up for the dollar and interest rate futures.

Last Friday was triple witching, which saw stock index futures and forex futures roll out of December into June………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In early morning trading today the dollar is gaining ground across the board. At the same time commodities are lower as are stocks. This is common when the dollar gains as stocks and commodities are generally inversely correlated with the dollar.

As a general rule this is a bullish time of year, with from here in to year-end typically being bullish, but as we cover in this week’s update seasonality is not enough by itself to place trades. An example of that is Gold, which also on a seasonal basis tends to do well in December but that is not the case so far this year and gold is lower by some $24 this morning at the time of writing and is now back below $1700. Gold is still in a long-term uptrend and is the last of the metals to still be in an uptrend. Silver, which often moves pretty well in tandem with gold is considerably lower this morning as are the other metals.

In this week’s update we touch on the large triangle pattern on gold that has formed over the past few months and note that a breakout from that triangle may lead to a decent move in the direction of the breakout. This morning’s action has given gold a downside breakout, but as mentioned above, the long-term trend is up. The next support area to look out for is $1670. Beyond that we’re looking at $1600 and then $1550.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: The past week saw a small continuation of strength for stock indexes but further weakness was seen in the commodity markets and the dollar for the most part was flat. Much of the week has been focused on events in the Eurozone with the Euro summit taking centre stage…….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

The bullishness from last week has carried over into early trading this morning and we may well see a test of numerous resistance levels that we wrote about in more detail in this week’s update. This has also corresponded to further weakness in the US dollar and a subsequent gain in commodities.

This inverse relationship has been in place between the dollar, stocks and commodities for the past 2-3 years, which is a big reason that all markets have been moving almost in lock step. This has been a large contributor to the historically high levels of volatility that we have seen over this same period as any move in one of these sectors has also been met with a similar move in the others, with the dollar being the main driver.

In a nutshell, a rising dollar translates to lower stock and commodity prices and a falling dollar equals higher stocks and commodity prices. This is another reason why this week ahead could be an interesting one as the major stock indexes and several major currencies are all approaching resistance levels. The outcome of what happens at these levels, either breakout or reversal may set the tone for the rest of the year.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The past week has been bullish for stocks and bearish for the dollar. This was not all that surprising as the prior moves in these markets had been large, so a correction was always possible. The long-term trends however remain unaffected and the week ahead should be interesting.

The long-term trends remain in place, and are down for stocks and commodities, and up for the dollar and interest rate future…….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In what is historically a fairly bullish week in the build up to the US Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday, the markets have very much got off on the wrong foot and at the time of writing are sharply lower. In this week’s update we wrote that trading off seasonal tendencies alone is not a sufficient reason to take or not take trades, and although things can soon change in the current market climate, that view is being borne out this morning.

As ever, the inverse relationship between stocks and the dollar continues, with the dollar rising as stocks fall. The other safe haven currency is the Yen and that is also rising this morning. For now the Swiss Franc’s status as a safe haven is off the table following the SNB’s intervention several weeks back. In addition, a rising dollar is negative for commodities as commodities are priced in dollars, so dollar strength is sending commodities such as Gold and Crude lower this morning. There is therefore a lot of red on the trading screens this morning!

The long-term trends remain in place, and are down for stocks and commodities, and up for the dollar and interest rate futures.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The week ahead will be a shortened trading week due to the US Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday. US markets are closed on Thursday and Friday is a shortened trading Day.

Last week we wrote that many markets were in trading ranges are were approaching support/resistance levels and that there could be several breakouts, and we saw that this past week and the same still applies for the week ahead as more key levels look set to be tested…….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In early trading this morning the dollar is once again gaining ground and regaining some of the losses seen during the latter part of last week. The long-term trend continues to favour the dollar almost across the board. Further dollar strength, should it come, will lead to a test of some key support/resistance areas against several of the major currencies and any breakouts may lead to some decent moves in favour of the dollar, which would pressure stocks and commodities. So far this morning, in spite of mild dollar strength, stocks and commodities are higher.

That said, we are in a seasonally bullish time of year and due to the normal inverse relationship between stocks and the dollar (as well as commodities) any stock rallies would pressure the dollar once more. As we write in this week’s update, the market to focus on is the S&P 500, with resistance around 1300 and support around 1200. A break of either of these levels will likely lead to a clearer picture.

Since last week’s update both the Greek and Italian PMs have both resigned and that goes to further emphasise the troubles within the Eurozone, which don’t like to be improving anytime soon.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The long-term trends still remain intact across the 4 primary sectors of stocks, commodities, forex and interest rate futures but many markets are in short term ranges and possibly on the verge of breakouts. Currently these trends are down for stocks and commodities, and up for the dollar and interest rate futures…….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In last week’s update we wrote about the indecision that was evident in numerous stocks and commodities by the candle patterns that had formed at or near resistance patterns. We got follow through on many of them early last week with the formation of morning star patterns and the completion of other reversal patterns. This sent stocks lower and the dollar higher, both moves that are back in the direction of the long-term trend. This, at least for now appears to have brought an end to the 3 week counter trend rally in stocks.

This morning has seen stocks resume weakness and the dollar gain as troubles in Europe continue to fester. It still amazes me that people still think it’s possible that Greece can avoid a default, when it is in fact a racing certainty that they will default. Over the weekend the news came out that the Greek PM George Papandreou will resign and a new coaltion government will form and that is causing Papandemonium!

All of these events, as well as other events in Europe, along with currency interventions seen recently from the Bank of Japan have caused an almost unprecented level of volatility in the markets, making conditions extremely tough to trade. These conditions will not likely last and usually have a way of resolving themselves with large trends once people stop fighting the markets. As with last week, an interesting week lies ahead.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The past week has bucked the recent short-term moves, which were against the long-term trend, to resume direction in the direction of the primary trend. These primary trends are still down for stocks and up for the dollar. Commodities still remain mixed but for the most part are still in long-term downtrends. The inverse relationship between stocks and the dollar continues………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In this week’s update published yesterday we wrote about the indecision that was evident in numerous stocks and commodities by the small real bodied candles or dojis seen on Friday. These patterns represent indecision, especially at resistance levels, which is where the markets were heading on Thursday prior to the pattern.

We also wrote that there were a couple of bear haramis in the forex markets, which although not exactly a reversal pattern, does indicate that buying had dried up or at the very least lost momentum. We also wrote that in spite of recent strength in stocks and weakness in the US dollar that the long-term trends still remained intact and that reversals were possible to resume moves in the direction of the primary trend.

We also warned of the likelihood of intervention from the Bank of Japan to weaken the Yen following its ascent to record highs last week and they intervened on Monday morning early, which was quicker than many expected. This sent the dollar soaring by 5% against the Yen and we also see the dollar sharply higher across the board.

We suggested that the week ahead would be an interesting one and it certainly is, by early Monday morning! Long-term trends remain intact, down for stocks and commodities and up for the dollar.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The past 3-4 weeks have been a similar story, with stocks continuing to rally, while the dollar has declined. Commodities remain mixed but for the most part are still in long-term downtrends. As summer comes to a close we enter what is seasonally a bullish time of year for stocks but following the strong October rallies it remains to be seen how much is left to the upside…..…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In early trading this morning stocks have continued to edge higher and the S&P 500 may continue towards 1260. Much of course may depend on the outcome of the meetings in Europe and Wednesday’s deadline to reach a solution. This could lead to some movement in stocks in the days ahead.

On the currency front the dollar is flat this morning and we did see a pause in the recent 3 week dollar weakness commencing towards the end of last week. As we wrote in this week’s update, several currencies are now pushing towards resistance levels and whether there is sufficient strength to push through those resistance levels following the recent rally remains to be seen. Momentum does appear to be waning in the currency markets. The Euro in particular is testing a fairly decent resistance area between current prices and the $1.40 level.

Much of this year has been plagued by uncertainty in the global financial markets and this has been reflected in high volatility across many markets. Although there have been some decent trends, most markets have failed to develop into sustain trends and have reverted to their prior trading ranges. This is a situation that will not continue indefinitely and bodes well for profitable trading conditions in the not too distant future.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

Stocks have continued their recent short-term strength while commodities have for the most part continued lower although there are exceptions. The dollar ended the week lower for a third straight week but the moves seen in the currency markets have been far from convincing. Long-term trends remain as before, up for the dollar and down for stocks and commodities….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

The strength seen in equities over the past week since the bounce from 1 year lows has continued this morning and the S&P 500 looks set to test a critical resistance level at 1230. How the market fares once it reaches that level will give a good indication as to what can be expected over the next few weeks. Overall the conditions still remain bearish for stocks and most commodities and in spite of recent strength that will not change in most markets unless considerable strength is seen.

The only stock index that looks like it may have a change of long-term trend to up on the horizon is the Nasdaq 100. The highs for the year are now in range and could be tested this week. A breach of the highs for the year would return the Nasdaq 100 to bullish.

The dollar has taken a bit of a beating over the past couple of weeks but remains in a long-term uptrend almost across the board. In early trading this morning the dollar is higher.

As we note in this week’s update, several markets across different sectors are approaching key resistance levels so this will be a good test to see how strong the recent rally actually is. Due to the extent of the recent moves and the short timeframe that they have occurred in a pullback would not be surprising.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The reversal from 1 year lows formed during the previous week continued this week and the markets are now approaching key resistance levels, as in fact are many markets including commodities and currencies. The past couple of weeks’ moves have been counter to the long term trend and the long term trends all remain intact, so still down for stocks and commodities but up for the dollar. ..…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.