This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

Following the recent very strong run seen in stocks we are seeing some correction, as we have been expecting. The markets have not quite reached our target at 1355 on the S&P 500 but are moving lower already this morning. That said, it is still early days and that are a couple of factors, which could change that later in the day. These are:

1. Monday’s for much of the past 2-3 years have generally been bullish
2. The U.S. markets don’t seem to like it when moves happen outside of their market opening hours and such moves are often reversed.

Considering the above things could still go either way today but certainly 1355 will need to be taken out for the bullish scenario to continue in the short term. A correction or consolidation would not be particularly surprising.

The down move in stocks has as ever correlated with a gain for the dollar as stocks and the dollar are generally inversely correlated. We did write about signs of buying coming in on the dollar index last week due to the presence of a series of lower shadows on the daily candles. Obviously we got the inverted shadows on the Euro last week indicating a rjection of higher prices, so this morning’s move lower is not all that surprising.

Gold has also continued with weakness, again this follows on from the large bearish engulfing pattern formed on Friday. The trend remains down for gold, up for the dollar overall (albeit with a couple of exceptions) and up for stocks.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: It’s been another week of risk on, which has seen stocks continue in bullish mode and the dollar continue its recent weakness. The trend continues to be up for stocks and is still up overall for the dollar but that may be going to change. Commodities for the most part have continued to benefit from dollar weakness………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

Following last week’s shortened trading week due to the US Thanksgiving Holiday, which was the worst Thanksgiving week stocks wise since 1932, the markets have begun this week in a much more bullish fashion, paring some of last week’s losses. This is not all that unexpected considering the extent of recent moves which have seen the stock indexes decline for 7 straight sessions, so a bounce is not altogether surprising. The long-term trends however are still very much intact so how long this bullish move continues for remains to be seen.

Friday saw some bullish retail numbers coming out which is possibly lifting the mood and today is “Cyber Monday” where retail figures normally continue to do well especially with shoppers seeking bargain deals in tough economic conditions. However, normal is nothing something that cannot really be aimed at the current economic situation or the markets, which for the most part this year have been anything but normal. This was typified last week by the normally bullish Thanksgiving week being the worst since 1932. Therefore the seasonal argument for December being bullish and people starting to look for the much-discussed Santa Claus rally in late December does come into question. Time of course will tell

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The past week was a shortened trading week due to the US Thanksgiving Holiday and it was a negative week for stocks and commodities but a bullish week for the dollar.

The long-term trends remain in place, and are down for stocks and commodities, and up for the dollar and interest rate futures…….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In last week’s update we wrote about the indecision that was evident in numerous stocks and commodities by the candle patterns that had formed at or near resistance patterns. We got follow through on many of them early last week with the formation of morning star patterns and the completion of other reversal patterns. This sent stocks lower and the dollar higher, both moves that are back in the direction of the long-term trend. This, at least for now appears to have brought an end to the 3 week counter trend rally in stocks.

This morning has seen stocks resume weakness and the dollar gain as troubles in Europe continue to fester. It still amazes me that people still think it’s possible that Greece can avoid a default, when it is in fact a racing certainty that they will default. Over the weekend the news came out that the Greek PM George Papandreou will resign and a new coaltion government will form and that is causing Papandemonium!

All of these events, as well as other events in Europe, along with currency interventions seen recently from the Bank of Japan have caused an almost unprecented level of volatility in the markets, making conditions extremely tough to trade. These conditions will not likely last and usually have a way of resolving themselves with large trends once people stop fighting the markets. As with last week, an interesting week lies ahead.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The past week has bucked the recent short-term moves, which were against the long-term trend, to resume direction in the direction of the primary trend. These primary trends are still down for stocks and up for the dollar. Commodities still remain mixed but for the most part are still in long-term downtrends. The inverse relationship between stocks and the dollar continues………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

The strength seen in equities over the past week since the bounce from 1 year lows has continued this morning and the S&P 500 looks set to test a critical resistance level at 1230. How the market fares once it reaches that level will give a good indication as to what can be expected over the next few weeks. Overall the conditions still remain bearish for stocks and most commodities and in spite of recent strength that will not change in most markets unless considerable strength is seen.

The only stock index that looks like it may have a change of long-term trend to up on the horizon is the Nasdaq 100. The highs for the year are now in range and could be tested this week. A breach of the highs for the year would return the Nasdaq 100 to bullish.

The dollar has taken a bit of a beating over the past couple of weeks but remains in a long-term uptrend almost across the board. In early trading this morning the dollar is higher.

As we note in this week’s update, several markets across different sectors are approaching key resistance levels so this will be a good test to see how strong the recent rally actually is. Due to the extent of the recent moves and the short timeframe that they have occurred in a pullback would not be surprising.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The reversal from 1 year lows formed during the previous week continued this week and the markets are now approaching key resistance levels, as in fact are many markets including commodities and currencies. The past couple of weeks’ moves have been counter to the long term trend and the long term trends all remain intact, so still down for stocks and commodities but up for the dollar. ..…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

It’s been a few weeks since I last wrote an update for this blog as I have been away on holiday. During my break I have still been trading and running the LS Trader and LS Forex sites as normal but did not get around to providing additional updates for my blog. Now that I am back things should return to normal.

So, since I’ve been away a lot of interesting things have been happening in the markets, and most of them have been along the lines of what we have been writing about in recent updates. In fact, in my last update on this blog I wrote about the expectation that the US Federal Reserve would return with a new round of QE3 in one form or another and we did see that with the so called Operation Twist. This move has subsequently not been particularly well received by the markets, which have been sharply lower on the whole over the past few weeks.

September as expected turned out to be its traditional weak month with stocks moving sharply lower. Commodities also moved sharply lower with the prime beneficiary being the US dollar. As we have been saying for a while, although the US dollar is a terribly flawed currency, it is still the primary safe haven currency, due to its status as the world’s reserve currency, and the fact that the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen, the other 2 safe haven currencies, have been weakened of late by intervention from their respective central banks.

This trend of money moving back into the dollar is something that looks set to continue as we will likely see considerable further stock and commodity weakness over the coming months. That’s not to say that the dollar will go straight up and the stocks and commodities will go straight down, as that’s not the way markets work, but it is to say that the likely trends ahead will be bullish for the dollar and bearish for stocks and commodities. In very early trading this morning, stocks are continuing lower and the dollar is ahead.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: It would be safe to say that fear has returned to the markets and that we are overall seeing a risk-off strategy being employed by many market participants and this is leading to many markets selling off sharply and entering bear market territory. The main exception is the US dollar, which as we have suggested recently would benefit from stock market weakness and its perceived safe haven status…….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

Early trading this morning has seen a jump higher for European stock indexes, which is translating to higher futures prices for US indexes as well at present. Crude Oil opened significantly lower but has since recovered, but the ever-impressive Gold continues to rise, having already posted a new all time high this morning. Gold came within 2 dollars of the $1900 level this morning on the December contract, with the new all time high coming in at $1898. The market is slightly off that level now but if $1900 can be cleared the possibility of $2000 before yearend becomes a distinct possibility.

Silver is also pressing nicely higher this morning following last week’s breakout but is still lagging gold’s advances. I know of a few metals experts who are expecting Silver to perform better than gold in the future as the gold/silver ratio is out of balance compared to the historical norm. Either way, both metals are in a strong uptrend at present and chart wise the target for silver will be the highs of the year around the $49.50-$50 area.

On balance, the US dollar is weaker, although not dramatically so and focus will be on the May lows at 7332 on the dollar index. Currency traders will also have an eye on the Japanese Yen as the prospect of further intervention from the Bank of Japan to weaken the Yen is expected this week.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

Volatility has remained high over the past week, which has overall seen continued weakness for stocks and the dollar, as well as several commodities. The exception to that is the metals sector, which has once again seen new all time highs for Gold….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In early trading this morning the dollar has for the most part been lower, especially against the Swiss Franc, which has seen a large decline for the dollar to new all time lows. We wrote in this week’s update about safe haven demand for the Swiss Franc and Gold and so far both of these markets are higher, with gold once again making new all time highs.

During the past week stocks resumed the long-term uptrend having bounced nicely off short-term support levels early in the week but stocks are a bit lower this morning. The dollar resumed the long-term downtrend last week falling virtually across the board. Commodities have been mixed but have benefited from a weaker dollar and this has seen Gold hit new all time highs once again. Aside from Gold and Silver, commodities are mostly lower this morning.

Crude may be in focus this week with the prospect of $100 Crude in range this week. Whether resistance at $100 will hold remains to be seen. So far this morning crude has backed off that level and is moving lower. $100 will be the level to watch as an indicator to short term price action.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

Risk appetite has returned to the markets after a week of volatility but some safe haven markets such as gold and the Swiss franc are still in demand, so investors still remain undecided on future price moves….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

Following last week’s moves, the long term trends are mostly down for stock indexes, mixed for commodities but still down for the dollar, in spite of recent short term strength.

In early trading this morning the markets were mostly lower and the dollar higher but these moves have since been erased. Commodities, in particular Crude Oil were sharply lower on the open but have since recovered some of the losses.

Indexes were also lower this morning but have also recovered their losses. This week ahead could be an interesting one on various fronts with potential further weakness for stocks and commodities and a possible continuation of short term dollar strength. As we have written many times before, the key index is the S&P 500 and this index counts more than the others. For now the S&P 500 has held up better than the other indexes and the long term trend remains up. Should that change and further weakness seen for the S&P 500 that leads to a change of long term trend to down, we may see a significant move. This scenario would probably also lead to continued dollar strength and further commodity weakness.

Gold is another market that will come into focus having sold off sharply during the latter part of last week. This morning Gold dipped below $1500 but has also since recovered slightly and now trades at $1501. If the market closes below $1500 we may see a move lower to test the next support level at $1460.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

Stocks managed to rise over the past week albeit in fairly volatile fashion. Early weakness was followed by a mid-week move higher and then weakness to close out the week. Commodities for the most part were lower and the dollar moved higher……continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In this morning’s trading there is little happening so not much to report with both the dollar and stocks so far relatively flat.

In last week’s update we wrote that there was no economic recovery underway and we have in fact been saying that here for since last year. The economic data that continues to come out from the UK and US goes to confirm that fact. However, from a contrarian perspective, Time magazine has picked up the story with this week’s cover running the headline “What Recovery”? There is also a picture of a dollar cut to pieces for added effect.

Long term readers here will no that magazine covers often come at the end of moves and are usually a good contra-indicator. The reason for this is that by the time these stories work their way through to the media, they have the public interest. With the vast majority of the public being wrong most of the time these stories tend to hit magazine covers at the end of moves, irrespective of the underlying fundamentals.

Clearly nothing has changed as far as the economy is concerned and things are still very bad both here and in the UK and in the long run will likely get a lot worse. What will be interesting to see though is how accurately this magazine cover predicts a bounce for the dollar and for stocks. The long-term trend remains down for the dollar and it would take quite some move higher for that to change so as before any dollar rally may well be relatively short lived. That’s not to say that we won’t see a bounce that lasts several weeks, if indeed we do see such a bounce.

Stock indexes, both in the UK and in the US remain in long-term up-trends but not by much and it won’t take much further weakness to change that. However, as these markets head for major support and sentiment being clearly so bearish, we may see a bullish move. Remember that the biggest up-moves come in bear markets.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

Stocks have continued their recent short-term weakness and indexes have been lower across the board this past week. The dollar has also had another bounce higher particularly in the last 3 days of last week. Long-term trends are still intact although that may change soon for stocks if we get much further weakness. For now the trends are up for stocks, down for the dollar and commodities remain mixed……continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In early trading this morning, stocks have continued lower, resuming weakness that has been seen over the past couple of weeks. The indexes are now heading towards short-term support so it remains to be seen as to whether support holds, or whether the current uptrend is over for now.

The dollar is slightly higher this morning as short-term dollar strength continues and this is also the case with interest rate futures. Aside from that most other markets are showing weakness as recent selling continues.

How long dollar strength continues for remains to be seen as the long-term trend is still very much against the dollar. As we have written before, with so many people being short the dollar, a bounce higher is always possible as things reach the stage that everyone who wants to be short already is.

Obviously a rising dollar makes commodities more expensive as they are priced in US dollars, so further dollar strength may continue to negatively impact commodities, especially metals and energies.

Gold has fallen back below $1500 and is currently at $1489 as I write and may head further down to test support around $1460 as the stronger dollar continues to affect metals. Silver is also lower, as is Crude. The trend long term still remains up for this markets and further weakness will be required before that changes.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The past week has seen the dollar continue recent short-term strength against the long term trend. This has not helped commodities, many of which are lower. Stocks have also been unable to move higher and for the most part have moved slightly lower. For now the long term trends are as before, up for stocks and commodities and down for the dollar……continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

PS. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system