This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

So today is the end of the month and also the end of the best 6 month of the year for stocks. Tomorrow is the start of May and the old trading adage “Sell in May and go away” comes to the minds of traders. Whether that turns out to be the right option remains to be seen. It is interesting to note that the 2^nd May last year did indeed turn out to be a good selling point as that was the high of 2011 and stocks declined for the rest of the year and did not regain those highs until February this year. I’ve never been a big fan of seasonal indicators but do look at them just to see what other traders are looking at and that is probably their only real value. Going back to 2010, the high came a little earlier, on the 26^th April and the market was then lower and did not regain those highs until November.

So far this morning stocks are flat but as we cover in this week’s update, they have regained their 50 day moving averages. One pattern that does suggest resistance is on the S&P 500 where an advance block pattern has formed, which indicates selling at the highs of the past 2 days. If that is cleared then a test of the highs of the year may well follow.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: The past week has seen stocks continue their short-term recovery and move back above their respective 50-day moving averages. The long-term trend is still very much up for stocks and a continuation towards the highs of the year is now a possibility once again..……continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our proprietary financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

Stocks have begun the week with a continuation of the weakness seen at the tail end of last week. S&P 500 futures are just edging below the lower trend line of the bull channel that we have been writing about recently so we may be going to see some further weakness in the short term for stocks. As we cover in this week’s update, we need to see what happens with today’s action and closing price in order to see if last week’s highs will be the top for the time being. A long down candle on the Nasdaq 100 would complete an evening star reversal pattern, which would be bearish for the short term.

The dollar is gaining ground this morning particularly against the commodity based currencies and is also higher against the Pound and the Euro which both made reversals in the direction of the long term trend last week and may yet head lower. If stocks do continue to falter we will likely see some further dollar strength and this will have an impact on commodities. Gold has moved back below $1700 and will likely test last week’s lows at $1688. The trend remains down for gold.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: The past week has seen stock indexes continue to climb higher but there are signs that momentum may be beginning to wane. The dollar has also advanced for the week overall and commodities have been mixed. With a few exceptions volatility is at much lower levels than it has been for much of the past 2-3 years and many markets are trending well.

Long-term trends are up for stocks and mixed for the dollar and for commodities.……continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

Stock indexes have begun the week on the back foot, pulling back from last week’s highs. As we cover in this week’s update there is a critical level on the S&P 500 around 1385 on the March contract (around 1370 on the cash S&P500), which is the 2008 high. We can likely expect some resistance around those levels and if the S&P fails to clear resistance there we will likely see some sort of pullback that will likely drag the other indexes lower. However, a break above that resistance level would be very bullish and open the way to at least 1400, therefore focus should be on the market’s reaction at these levels if indeed they get there.

Currencies are mixed with some advances and declines for the dollar. We can expect the opposite move from the dollar that we see in the stock indexes due to the long-term inverse correlation between the two.

Commodities are also mostly off last week’s levels and Crude is down over a dollar at the time of writing, and gold is also lower by around $8. The long-term trends are still intact but there are possible trend changes to up this week in some of the grains markets and some metals.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: The past week has seen stock indexes continue to climb higher, in some cases to new multi-year highs. We have also on balance seen the dollar continue recent weakness and commodities advance.

Long-term trends are up for stocks and are heading that way for commodities. The trend for the dollar is up on balance but may be changing soon……continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

The markets have begun the week in bullish fashion, continuing strength seen last week. The U.S. markets are officially closed today due to the Presidents’ Day holiday, therefore volume may be thin, as it was on Friday. As we cover in this weeks update, U.S. stocks are at multi year highs in some cases and have recovered their losses since June 2008.

European indexes are also on the move, with the Dax now heading towards 7000 for the first time since August last year.

Commodities are also higher with Crude breaking through to its highest level since May last year. There is little in the way of resistance on the Crude chart to suggest that it won’t continue higher towards last year’s highs.

Currencies are mixed but are mostly dollar negative, as one would expect with stocks on the move higher. The inverse relationship between the stocks and the dollar is still intact. Dollar weakness is also assisting Gold, which continues to edge higher. Overall the trend is towards risk-on strategies at present and the uptrend in interest rate futures is under pressure, with a likely test of medium term support soon.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: The past week has seen stocks reach and move above our long-standing target of 1355 on the S&P 500 and U.S. stocks have now all but erased their losses since June 2008. The trend remains up for stocks with indexes either at or near multi year highs (the Dow 30 hit a 4 year highs this past week and the Nasdaq 100 reached its highest level since 2001)………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In early trading this morning stocks are higher and the dollar is lower. Greece has just passed a vote on very unpopular austerity measures in order to secure the next bailout and stocks are higher as is the Euro. It is likely that we will see another test of our 1355 target on the S&P500 March contract this morning, which represents the 2011 high. If that resistance can be cleared then a continuation of the rally may lead to a new target at 1385.

Commodities are also mostly higher with April Crude up over $1 this morning briefly going back above the $100 level. As we cover in this week’s update, Crude has been in a range of late but since the trend is still up and the 200 day moving average still providing support, an upside breakout is looking more likely. Currently the highs of the year sit at $104.10 on the April contract so that would be a possible target.

Heating Oil has also been moving higher as demand has increased from extremely cold weather in Europe. I don’t remember the last time I saw minus 10 on the thermometer that I saw on Sunday! However, since the recent gains on heating oil there are some signs of tiredness in this market so we may see a small correction before the up move continues. The trend is up for the energy sector still, with the exception of Natural gas, which seems to be in a permanent downtrend.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The past week has seen stocks and the dollar end the week relatively flat although stocks did rise to new highs for the year. The trend for the dollar remains up overall and commodities remain mixed………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

Following the recent very strong run seen in stocks we are seeing some correction, as we have been expecting. The markets have not quite reached our target at 1355 on the S&P 500 but are moving lower already this morning. That said, it is still early days and that are a couple of factors, which could change that later in the day. These are:

1. Monday’s for much of the past 2-3 years have generally been bullish
2. The U.S. markets don’t seem to like it when moves happen outside of their market opening hours and such moves are often reversed.

Considering the above things could still go either way today but certainly 1355 will need to be taken out for the bullish scenario to continue in the short term. A correction or consolidation would not be particularly surprising.

The down move in stocks has as ever correlated with a gain for the dollar as stocks and the dollar are generally inversely correlated. We did write about signs of buying coming in on the dollar index last week due to the presence of a series of lower shadows on the daily candles. Obviously we got the inverted shadows on the Euro last week indicating a rjection of higher prices, so this morning’s move lower is not all that surprising.

Gold has also continued with weakness, again this follows on from the large bearish engulfing pattern formed on Friday. The trend remains down for gold, up for the dollar overall (albeit with a couple of exceptions) and up for stocks.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: It’s been another week of risk on, which has seen stocks continue in bullish mode and the dollar continue its recent weakness. The trend continues to be up for stocks and is still up overall for the dollar but that may be going to change. Commodities for the most part have continued to benefit from dollar weakness………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

Following last week’s shortened trading week due to the US Thanksgiving Holiday, which was the worst Thanksgiving week stocks wise since 1932, the markets have begun this week in a much more bullish fashion, paring some of last week’s losses. This is not all that unexpected considering the extent of recent moves which have seen the stock indexes decline for 7 straight sessions, so a bounce is not altogether surprising. The long-term trends however are still very much intact so how long this bullish move continues for remains to be seen.

Friday saw some bullish retail numbers coming out which is possibly lifting the mood and today is “Cyber Monday” where retail figures normally continue to do well especially with shoppers seeking bargain deals in tough economic conditions. However, normal is nothing something that cannot really be aimed at the current economic situation or the markets, which for the most part this year have been anything but normal. This was typified last week by the normally bullish Thanksgiving week being the worst since 1932. Therefore the seasonal argument for December being bullish and people starting to look for the much-discussed Santa Claus rally in late December does come into question. Time of course will tell

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The past week was a shortened trading week due to the US Thanksgiving Holiday and it was a negative week for stocks and commodities but a bullish week for the dollar.

The long-term trends remain in place, and are down for stocks and commodities, and up for the dollar and interest rate futures…….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

In last week’s update we wrote about the indecision that was evident in numerous stocks and commodities by the candle patterns that had formed at or near resistance patterns. We got follow through on many of them early last week with the formation of morning star patterns and the completion of other reversal patterns. This sent stocks lower and the dollar higher, both moves that are back in the direction of the long-term trend. This, at least for now appears to have brought an end to the 3 week counter trend rally in stocks.

This morning has seen stocks resume weakness and the dollar gain as troubles in Europe continue to fester. It still amazes me that people still think it’s possible that Greece can avoid a default, when it is in fact a racing certainty that they will default. Over the weekend the news came out that the Greek PM George Papandreou will resign and a new coaltion government will form and that is causing Papandemonium!

All of these events, as well as other events in Europe, along with currency interventions seen recently from the Bank of Japan have caused an almost unprecented level of volatility in the markets, making conditions extremely tough to trade. These conditions will not likely last and usually have a way of resolving themselves with large trends once people stop fighting the markets. As with last week, an interesting week lies ahead.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The past week has bucked the recent short-term moves, which were against the long-term trend, to resume direction in the direction of the primary trend. These primary trends are still down for stocks and up for the dollar. Commodities still remain mixed but for the most part are still in long-term downtrends. The inverse relationship between stocks and the dollar continues………continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

The strength seen in equities over the past week since the bounce from 1 year lows has continued this morning and the S&P 500 looks set to test a critical resistance level at 1230. How the market fares once it reaches that level will give a good indication as to what can be expected over the next few weeks. Overall the conditions still remain bearish for stocks and most commodities and in spite of recent strength that will not change in most markets unless considerable strength is seen.

The only stock index that looks like it may have a change of long-term trend to up on the horizon is the Nasdaq 100. The highs for the year are now in range and could be tested this week. A breach of the highs for the year would return the Nasdaq 100 to bullish.

The dollar has taken a bit of a beating over the past couple of weeks but remains in a long-term uptrend almost across the board. In early trading this morning the dollar is higher.

As we note in this week’s update, several markets across different sectors are approaching key resistance levels so this will be a good test to see how strong the recent rally actually is. Due to the extent of the recent moves and the short timeframe that they have occurred in a pullback would not be surprising.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:

The reversal from 1 year lows formed during the previous week continued this week and the markets are now approaching key resistance levels, as in fact are many markets including commodities and currencies. The past couple of weeks’ moves have been counter to the long term trend and the long term trends all remain intact, so still down for stocks and commodities but up for the dollar. ..…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.

This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.

It’s been a few weeks since I last wrote an update for this blog as I have been away on holiday. During my break I have still been trading and running the LS Trader and LS Forex sites as normal but did not get around to providing additional updates for my blog. Now that I am back things should return to normal.

So, since I’ve been away a lot of interesting things have been happening in the markets, and most of them have been along the lines of what we have been writing about in recent updates. In fact, in my last update on this blog I wrote about the expectation that the US Federal Reserve would return with a new round of QE3 in one form or another and we did see that with the so called Operation Twist. This move has subsequently not been particularly well received by the markets, which have been sharply lower on the whole over the past few weeks.

September as expected turned out to be its traditional weak month with stocks moving sharply lower. Commodities also moved sharply lower with the prime beneficiary being the US dollar. As we have been saying for a while, although the US dollar is a terribly flawed currency, it is still the primary safe haven currency, due to its status as the world’s reserve currency, and the fact that the Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen, the other 2 safe haven currencies, have been weakened of late by intervention from their respective central banks.

This trend of money moving back into the dollar is something that looks set to continue as we will likely see considerable further stock and commodity weakness over the coming months. That’s not to say that the dollar will go straight up and the stocks and commodities will go straight down, as that’s not the way markets work, but it is to say that the likely trends ahead will be bullish for the dollar and bearish for stocks and commodities. In very early trading this morning, stocks are continuing lower and the dollar is ahead.

This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: It would be safe to say that fear has returned to the markets and that we are overall seeing a risk-off strategy being employed by many market participants and this is leading to many markets selling off sharply and entering bear market territory. The main exception is the US dollar, which as we have suggested recently would benefit from stock market weakness and its perceived safe haven status…….…continue reading by clicking here

Good trading

Phil Seaton

P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system

P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.