Financial spread betting update 27th February 2012
This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.
Stock indexes have begun the week on the back foot, pulling back from last week’s highs. As we cover in this week’s update there is a critical level on the S&P 500 around 1385 on the March contract (around 1370 on the cash S&P500), which is the 2008 high. We can likely expect some resistance around those levels and if the S&P fails to clear resistance there we will likely see some sort of pullback that will likely drag the other indexes lower. However, a break above that resistance level would be very bullish and open the way to at least 1400, therefore focus should be on the market’s reaction at these levels if indeed they get there.
Currencies are mixed with some advances and declines for the dollar. We can expect the opposite move from the dollar that we see in the stock indexes due to the long-term inverse correlation between the two.
Commodities are also mostly off last week’s levels and Crude is down over a dollar at the time of writing, and gold is also lower by around $8. The long-term trends are still intact but there are possible trend changes to up this week in some of the grains markets and some metals.
This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: The past week has seen stock indexes continue to climb higher, in some cases to new multi-year highs. We have also on balance seen the dollar continue recent weakness and commodities advance.
Long-term trends are up for stocks and are heading that way for commodities. The trend for the dollar is up on balance but may be changing soon……continue reading by clicking here
Good trading
Phil Seaton
P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system
P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.
Financial spread betting update 20th February 2012
This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.
The markets have begun the week in bullish fashion, continuing strength seen last week. The U.S. markets are officially closed today due to the Presidents’ Day holiday, therefore volume may be thin, as it was on Friday. As we cover in this weeks update, U.S. stocks are at multi year highs in some cases and have recovered their losses since June 2008.
European indexes are also on the move, with the Dax now heading towards 7000 for the first time since August last year.
Commodities are also higher with Crude breaking through to its highest level since May last year. There is little in the way of resistance on the Crude chart to suggest that it won’t continue higher towards last year’s highs.
Currencies are mixed but are mostly dollar negative, as one would expect with stocks on the move higher. The inverse relationship between the stocks and the dollar is still intact. Dollar weakness is also assisting Gold, which continues to edge higher. Overall the trend is towards risk-on strategies at present and the uptrend in interest rate futures is under pressure, with a likely test of medium term support soon.
This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: The past week has seen stocks reach and move above our long-standing target of 1355 on the S&P 500 and U.S. stocks have now all but erased their losses since June 2008. The trend remains up for stocks with indexes either at or near multi year highs (the Dow 30 hit a 4 year highs this past week and the Nasdaq 100 reached its highest level since 2001)………continue reading by clicking here
Good trading
Phil Seaton
P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system
P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.
Financial spread betting update 13th February 2012
This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.
In early trading this morning stocks are higher and the dollar is lower. Greece has just passed a vote on very unpopular austerity measures in order to secure the next bailout and stocks are higher as is the Euro. It is likely that we will see another test of our 1355 target on the S&P500 March contract this morning, which represents the 2011 high. If that resistance can be cleared then a continuation of the rally may lead to a new target at 1385.
Commodities are also mostly higher with April Crude up over $1 this morning briefly going back above the $100 level. As we cover in this week’s update, Crude has been in a range of late but since the trend is still up and the 200 day moving average still providing support, an upside breakout is looking more likely. Currently the highs of the year sit at $104.10 on the April contract so that would be a possible target.
Heating Oil has also been moving higher as demand has increased from extremely cold weather in Europe. I don’t remember the last time I saw minus 10 on the thermometer that I saw on Sunday! However, since the recent gains on heating oil there are some signs of tiredness in this market so we may see a small correction before the up move continues. The trend is up for the energy sector still, with the exception of Natural gas, which seems to be in a permanent downtrend.
This week’s financial spread betting update begins with:
The past week has seen stocks and the dollar end the week relatively flat although stocks did rise to new highs for the year. The trend for the dollar remains up overall and commodities remain mixed………continue reading by clicking here
Good trading
Phil Seaton
P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system
P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.
Financial spread betting update 6th February 2012
This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.
Following the recent very strong run seen in stocks we are seeing some correction, as we have been expecting. The markets have not quite reached our target at 1355 on the S&P 500 but are moving lower already this morning. That said, it is still early days and that are a couple of factors, which could change that later in the day. These are:
- Monday’s for much of the past 2-3 years have generally been bullish
- The U.S. markets don’t seem to like it when moves happen outside of their market opening hours and such moves are often reversed.
Considering the above things could still go either way today but certainly 1355 will need to be taken out for the bullish scenario to continue in the short term. A correction or consolidation would not be particularly surprising.
The down move in stocks has as ever correlated with a gain for the dollar as stocks and the dollar are generally inversely correlated. We did write about signs of buying coming in on the dollar index last week due to the presence of a series of lower shadows on the daily candles. Obviously we got the inverted shadows on the Euro last week indicating a rjection of higher prices, so this morning’s move lower is not all that surprising.
Gold has also continued with weakness, again this follows on from the large bearish engulfing pattern formed on Friday. The trend remains down for gold, up for the dollar overall (albeit with a couple of exceptions) and up for stocks.
This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: It’s been another week of risk on, which has seen stocks continue in bullish mode and the dollar continue its recent weakness. The trend continues to be up for stocks and is still up overall for the dollar but that may be going to change. Commodities for the most part have continued to benefit from dollar weakness………continue reading by clicking here
Good trading
Phil Seaton
P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system
P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.
Financial spread betting update 17th January 2012
This week’s financial spread betting update is now available and can be read by clicking here.
This update is coming to you one day later than normal due to the U.S. markets being closed on Monday due to the Martin Luther King Holiday. Although other world markets were open relatively little usually happens as volume us light until U.S. markets open again.
This held true again this year with little happening yesterday. This morning though has seen stocks open higher and the inverse correlation between stocks and the dollar that we covered in this week’s update is showing up this morning and the dollar is lower. The other part of that inverse correlation is between the dollar and commodities, and a lower dollar usually equals higher commodity prices and we are seeing that again this morning with commodities, particularly gold and crude both higher this morning.
This morning’s rise in stocks has taken the S&P 500 up to test the critical 1300 level, which if cleared, especially during the U.S. session later on today may well lead to a move higher towards the May 2011 highs. This may subsequently lead to new highs for stocks since the March 09 lows but that remains to be seen. Of all the stock indexes that we trade, only the S&P 500 is in a long term uptrend although the Nasdaq 100 is close to giving a change of trend. The Nikkei and Dax are lagging behind so overall the trend for stocks is still down. The trend is also still down for commodities and up for the dollar.
This week’s financial spread betting update begins with: We wrote last week that the way the year has started with both stocks and the dollar rising is unusual and this has continued this week. The dollar index has risen to its highest level in a year and the S&P 500 has also reached a multi-month high. Stocks and the dollar are historically inversely correlated so how much longer both markets continue to rise together for remains to be seen. Probably not very long will be the answer………continue reading by clicking here
Good trading
Phil Seaton
P.S. Click here to find out more about our financial spread betting system
P.P.S. Click here for more information on our dedicated forex system.